Statistical frameworks for Circular Economy behaviours

Graciela Martinez and Altea Lorenzo-Arribas have contributed their statistical expertise to a RESAS funded interdisciplinary project on Circular Economy: People, Behaviours and Skills. 

The Scottish Government RESAS funded interdisciplinary project Circular Economy: People, Behaviours and Skills led by James Hutton Institute colleagues aims to develop the evidence base to support policymakers in promoting behaviour change, necessary to accelerate the green recovery through the development of a circular economy (CE) in Scotland. BioSS’ role in the project has focused on the development of a circular behaviour scale and a causality framework.

Development of a Circular Behaviour Scale

Graciela Martinez has contributed to the development of a statistically sound psychometric scale to assess which behaviours individuals exhibit that are most relevant to circular economy policy, and how we can measure them accurately. Through an iterative process of selection of scale items from the literature, general public opinion elicitation, factor analysis and validation via a second general public survey, a 34-item Circular Behaviours Scale was created that detected nine key types of behaviour for CE policy (summarised in Figure 1).

Table representing the nine key types of CE behaviour

Figure 1.  Key types of behaviour for Circular Economy policy.

 

Causal inference within the Circular Economy behaviours context

Altea Lorenzo-Arribas has worked on a causality framework that aims to reflect a more comprehensive picture of the causal relationships in the patterns of CE behaviours. The framework combines statistical methods with Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), both informed by qualitative and quantitative data and making use of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to represent causality visually.  With an aim that, by assessing the impact of interventions more efficiently, policies that are likely to have a positive effect on the environment could be prioritised.

 

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Figure 2. Preparing a ‘toy’ Agent Based Model. Photo credit: CE project group

Open science: The project’s protocols, preregistrations, and data can be found on OSF | Circular economy: People, behaviours and skills

Further reading: Colley, K., Hague, A., Chen, J., Lorenzo-Arribas, A., Wooldridge, T., Somervail, P., Martínez Sánchez, G., Assefa, S., Bender, F., & Craig, T. (2024). Putting people at the centre of the circle: An agenda for behavioural research on the circular economy. Frontiers in Sustainability, 5, 1423912. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsus.2024.1423912

 

 

Impact:

2024 position paper already having considerable academic impact.

The Circular Behaviour Scale is already planned to be used in future surveys.

Conferences presentations at Spanish Statistical Society SEIO 2022 & the Royal Statistical Society International Conference 2025.

“This work on developing a circular behaviours scale has been a driver for the inclusion of indicators on circular behaviours in the draft circular economy indicator framework for Scotland“ (RESAS representatives)

Best example of a Hutton team adopting open science across multiple stages in the research cycle.

Altea & Graciela

For further information, please contact Altea Lorenzo-Arribas or Graciela Martinez