| Articles in refeered journals - Other publications | Poster presentations - Oral presentations | Websites |

Journal articles

Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Marion, G. and Kuehn, I. (in press)
Bayesian image restoration models for combining expert knowledge on recording activity with species distribution data.
To appear in Ecography.

Butler, A., Doherty, R. M. and Marion, G. (2009)
[Abstract] Model averaging to combine simulations of future global vegetation carbon stocks
Environmetrics, 20(7), 791-811.

Kohn, D., Hulme, P.E., Hollingsworth, P.M. and Butler, A. (2009)
[Abstract]. Are native bluebells (Hyacinthoides non-scripta) at risk from alien congenerics? Evidence from distributions and co-occurence in Scotland.
Biological Conservation, 142(1), 61-74.

Butler, A. and Glasbey, C. A. (2008)
[Abstract] A latent Gaussian model for compositional data with structural zeroes.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), 57(5), 505-520.

Parsons, M., Mitchell, I., Butler, A., Ratcliffe, N., Frederiksen, M., Foster, S. and Reid, J.B. (2008)
[Abstract] Seabirds as marine environmental indicators.
ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65, 1520-1526.

Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Tawn, J.A. and Flather, R.A. (2007)
[Abstract] Trend estimation in extremes of North Sea surges.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), 56(4), 395-414.

Cook, A., Marion, G., Butler, A. and Gibson, G. (2007)
[Abstract] Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 69(6), 2005-2025.

Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Tawn, J.A., Flather, R.A. and Horsburgh, K.J. (2007)
[Abstract] Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations.
Journal of Marine Systems, 67, 189-200.

Butler, A., Rothery, P. and Roy, D. (2003)
[Abstract] Minitab Macros for Resampling Methods.
Teaching Statistics, 25, 22-25.

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

Other publications

Butler, A. (2007) [postscript]
Contribution to the discussion of "Enhancing statistical education by using role-plays of consultations" by R. Taplin,
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 170(2), 267-300.

Butler, A., Glasbey, C. A. and Wanless, S. (2007) [PDF]
Approximate Bayesian inference in a latent Gaussian model.
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland Technical Report.

Parsons, M. , Mitchell, P. I., Mavor, R. A., Butler, A. and Ratcliffe N. (2006)
Natural heritage trends: abundance of breeding seabirds in Scotland.
Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report F05NB01.

Bierman, S.M., Butler, A. and Marion, G.R. (2005) [a href="http://www.bioss.ac.uk/alarm/training/">HTML]
Compositional data analysis.
Module of an online training course on "Statistical methods for environmental risk assessment".

Butler, A. (2005) [postscript: 21MB] Statistical modelling of synthetic oceanographic extremes.
PhD thesis, Lancaster University

Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Flather, R.A. and Tawn, J.A. (2004) [word document]
Spatial estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations.
In Proceedings of the IMA meeting on Flood Risk Assessment, University of Bath, 7-8 September 2004

Butler, A. (2004) [postscript]
Contribution to the discussion of "A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values" by J. E. Heffernan and J. A. Tawn.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical methodology), 66, 534-535.

Butler, A. (2001) [postscript] An exploration of the relationship between productivity and biodiversity in British grasslands.
BSc dissertation, Lancaster University

Butler, A. (2001) Minitab Macros for Resampling Methods.
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Technical Report.

Butler, A. (2000) A comparison of methods for analysing trends in regional and national butterfly abundance.
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Technical Report..

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

Poster presentations

Adam Butler, Glenn Marion and Stijn Bierman
Assessing risks to biodiversity for European ecosystems
Incorporating the Ecosystem Approach in the Conservation of Biodiversity, RBGE, March 2007
[PDF]

Adam Butler and Chris Glasbey
Approximate inference for a latent gaussian model of compositional data with structural zeroes
Workshop on `Recent advances in Monte Carlo based inference', Cambridge, November 2006

Adam Butler, Stijn Bierman and Glenn Marion
The ALARM project: ecological risk assessment at the pan-European scale
Bayesian Methods for Population Ecology Workshop, Cambridge, September 2005
[Postscript]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Assessing the impact of climate change upon extreme sea levels using hydrodynamical models
SEMSTAT meeting on extremes, Goteborg, December 2001
[ Postscript]

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

Oral presentations

Presenting author is shown in bold.

2009

Adam Butler, Ian Mitchell, Matt Parsons and David Elston
Analysis trends in seabird abundance at national, regional and international scales
NCSE annual workshop, St. Andrew's, June 2009

Adam Butler, Ian Mitchell and Matt Parsons
Are seabirds becoming more or less abundant?
Young Statistician's Meeting, Glasgow, April 2009

2008

Lindsay Collins, Adam Butler, Clive Anderson, Ruth Doherty and Glenn Marion
Quantifying climate uncertainty in dynamic vegetation models
PISCES-2 workshop, Bristol, September 2008

ALARM QRA group (presented by Adam Butler)
Linking expert scientific knowledge to policy: a qualitative assessment of future risks to European biodiversity
EURECO-GFOE conference, Leipzig, September 2008

Adam Butler, Jackie Potts and Nikki Baggaley
The changing face on environmental extremes
RERAD Programme 3 Steering Group meeting, Edinburgh, May 2008

Adam Butler, Stijn Bierman and Glenn Marion
Statistical challenges in ecological risk assessment
RSS Lancashire and East Cumbria local group, Lancaster University, April 2008

Adam Butler and Chris Glasbey
A latent Gaussian model for compositional data with zeros
Seminar, Sheffield University, April 2008

Adam Butler, Stijn Bierman and Glenn Marion
ALARM: a statistical perspective
CEH Bush, Edinburgh, April 2008

Adam Butler
Extremes: Statistical Analysis of Rare Events
Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Aberdeen, January 2008

2007

Adam Butler
An introduction to extreme value theory
BioSS general meeting, Edinburgh, November 2007

BioSS
Statistical tools for climate impact assessment
ECRR/SNIFFER climate impacts seminar, November 2007

Adam Butler
An introduction to extreme value theory
SCRI climate change meeting, Dundee, October 2007

Stijn Bierman, Glenn Marion and Adam Butler
Statistical analysis of species-level data on distribution and traits.
Tartu University, Estonia, October 2007

Adam Butler
Extremes values and risk.
RERAD CCTC meeting, Edinburgh, September 2007

Adam Butler
Extreme value analysis of output from complex environmental models
[PDF] 18th annual meeting of the International Environmetrics Society, Mikulov, Czech Republic, August 2007

Glenn Marion, Stijn Bierman, Adam Butler and Alex Cook
Statistical tools for European biodiversity risk assessment
National Centre for Statistical Ecology workshop, Canterbury, June 2007

Adam Butler
Expert elicitation
BioSS journal club, BioSS, May 2007

Adam Butler
Searching for applications of EVT in biology
[Powerpoint] UK extremes meeting, Sheffield, April 2007

Adam Butler
Exploratory methods to analyse output from complex environmental models
[Powerpoint] Smoothing-Based and Gaussian-Process-Based Methods for Non-Parametric Regression in Environmental Problems, ICMS, Edinburgh, March 2007

Eva Kuester, Adam Butler, Ingolf Kuehn, Stijn Bierman and Glenn Marion
Bayesian methods for analysis of species traits
ALARM general meeting, Athens, January 2007

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

2006

Adam Butler, Matthew Parsons, Ian Mitchell, Roderick Mavor, Norman Ratcliffe and Simon Foster
Bayesian modelling of trends in abundance from the UK Seabird Monitoring Programme
CEH Applied Statistics Network, Edinburgh, November 2006

Adam Butler and Chris Glasbey
Approximate Bayesian inference for a latent gaussian model of compositional data
BioSS general meeting, Edinburgh, November 2006

Ruth Doherty, Adam Butler, Glenn Marion and Jonathan Rougier
Impact of climate uncertainty upon trends in outputs generated by an ecosystem model
Workshop on `Probabilistic future climate and climate impact prediction', Edinburgh, September 2006
[Ruth's part:Powerpoint, Adam's part: Powerpoint]

Adam Butler and Chris Glasbey
A latent Gaussian model for compositional data with structural zeroes
RSS conference, Belfast, September 2006

Matthew Parsons, Ian Mitchell, Adam Butler, Roderick Mavor, Norman Ratcliffe and Simon Foster
Towards a breeding seabird indicator for Scotland - modelling trends from the UK Seabird Monitoring Programme
9th International Conference: Seabird Populations under Pressure, University of Aberdeen, September 2006

Adam Butler
Discussion of the paper: Allen and Stott (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, Part I: Theory. Climate Dynamics, 21, 477-491.
Bioss journal club, June 2006 [Powerpoint]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Analysing trends in the magnitude & frequency of extremes events
Statistics Seminar, Heriot Watt University, May 2006
[Abstract: HTML] [Talk: PDF]

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

2005

Adam Butler and Jonathan Tawn
Conditional extremes of a Markov chain
Statistics Seminar, Edinburgh University, November 2005
[Abstract: Text] [Talk: PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Extreme value theory, climate change and coastal flood risk
RSS Highland local group, October 2005
[Abstract: Text] [Talk: PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Spatial and temporal models for synthetic oceanographic extremes
25th European Meeting of Statisticians, Oslo, July 2005
[Abstract: PDF] [Talk: PDF]

Adam Butler
Discussion of the paper : S. Coles, J. E. Heffernan and J. A. Tawn (1999) Dependence measures for extreme value analyses. Extremes, 2(4), 339-365.
BioSS journal club, June 2005 [PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Extreme value theory, climate change and coastal flood risk
CREEM seminar, St. Andrews, June 2005
[Abstract: TXT] - [Presentation: PDF]

Adam Butler
Discussion of the paper : R. L. Smith (1989)
Extreme value analysis of environmental time series: an application to trend detection in ground-level ozone.
Statistical Science, 4(4), 367-393.
BioSS journal club, May 2005 [PDF]

Jonathan Tawn, Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan and Roger Flather
Analysis of extremes of synthetic sea surge data
International Biometric Society Multi-Region Conference, Leicester, April 2005

Adam Butler, Stijn Bierman and Glenn Marion
Some statistical perspectives on invasivity and invasability
Local ALARM meeting for BioSS & CEH Banchory, Edinburgh, March 2005
[Openoffice]

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

2004

Jonathan Tawn, Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan and Roger Flather
Analysis of extremes of synthetic surge data
Climate extremes and risk reduction, University College London, November 2004
[Postscript] [PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Extreme value methods for synthetic storm surge data
Workshop on exceedances and extremes in wave characteristics, Southampton, September 2004
[Postscript] [PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Local estimation of trends in North Sea surge elevations
IMA meeting on Flood Risk Assessment, University of Bath, September 2004
[Postscript] [PDF]

Adam Butler Spatial extreme value methods for synthetic storm surge data
Presentation for job interview, BIOSS, September 2004
[Postscript] [PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Extreme value analysis of the output from a deterministic hydrodynamical model
3rd International Symposium on Extreme Value Analysis, Aveiro (Portugal), July 2004
[Postscript] [PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Extremal trends in hindcast North Sea surge levels
Statistics Forum, Lancaster University, February 2004
[Postscript]

2003

Adam Butler and Jonathan Tawn
Conditional extremes of a Markov chain
UK Extremes, Lancaster University, November 2003
[Postscript]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Spatial models for synthetic oceanographic extremes
UK extremes, Lancaster University, November 2003
[Postscript]

Adam Butler
Oral contribution
Discussion of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) at the Royal Statistical Society, October 2003
[Postscript]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Towards a conditionally-specified model for spatial oceanographic extremes
Statistics forum, Lancaster University, May 2003
[PDF]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Spatial oceanographic extremes
Research Students Conference 2003, Guildford, April 2003
[Powerpoint]; accompanying handout [Word]

Adam Butler and Jonathan Tawn
Some conditional extremes of a Markov chain
Postgraduate forum, Lancaster University, January 2003
[Postscript]

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

2002

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Climate change, extreme sea levels and hydrodynamical models
Lancaster University departmental forum, May 2002
[Powerpoint]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan, Jonathan Tawn and Roger Flather
Climate change, extreme sea levels and hydrodynamical models
Research Students Conference 2002, Warwick, April 2002
[Powerpoint]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan and Simon Smart
An exploration of the relationship between productivity and diversity in British grasslands.
Lunchtime seminar, CEH Merlewood, April 2002
[ Powerpoint]

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan and Simon Smart
An exploration of the relationship between productivity and diversity in British grasslands
Postgraduate forum, Lancaster University, January 2002
[ Powerpoint]

2001

Adam Butler, Janet Heffernan and Simon Smart
An exploration of the relationship between productivity and diversity in British grasslands
CEH Applied Statistics Network meeting, Edinburgh, November 2001
[ Powerpoint]

[an error occurred while processing this directive]

Websites

I maintain the following websites:

Edinburgh Royal Statistical Society Local Group

Probablistic future climate and climate impacts prediction workshop, Edinburgh, 25-26 September 2006