Edinburgh RSS local group
Meetings 2008-2009


14th October 2008, 5.45pm (Refreshments from 5.15pm)
The Review of GERS
Richard Morrison, Statistician, Office Of the Chief Economic Advisor, Scottish Government
Royal Pharmaceutical Society, Scottish Office, 36 York Place, Edinburgh EH1 3HU

Abstract:
The GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) publication estimates the revenues raised and expenditure on services for Scotland. It has always attracted considerable attention, not least because of what it does and does not say about the viability of the Scottish economy. GERS was first published in 1992 and became a national statistics publication in 2004. Following scrutiny, both by external commentators and the finance committee of the Scottish parliament in 2007 a review of the publication was announced. The speaker will briefly discuss some of the history of the publication and go on to consider the methodology, the review process and the results of GERS 2006-07.

11th November 2008
Career young statistician's meeting (free; non-members are welcome)
Royal Pharmaceutical Society, Scottish Office, 36 York Place, Edinburgh EH1 3HU
Meeting starts 5.30pm, wine available from 5pm.

This meeting brings together career young statisticians from a number of fields to discuss the progression of their career and to outline the types of work they have been involved in. A member of the RSS Local Group will discuss the benefits of joining the RSS (if you haven¡Çt already!) and the benefits of GradStat and CStat designations. Information about how to join will also be available. A speaker from the Information Services Division (ISD) will outline the career options available for statisticians within the NHS and will give a presentation on a recent project undertaken within the Division. Carrie Graham from Her Majesty¡Çs Inspectorate of Education will talk about her career in the GSS and the type of posts that are available as a Government Statistician. Stewart McAlpine from RBS will discuss his work in credit risk scoring and the career paths he has seen in the private banking sector.

Tuesday 9th December 2008
The Application Of Survival Analysis To Credit Risk Modelling
Professor Jonathan Crook, Credit Research Centre, University of Edinburgh
Royal Pharmaceutical Society, Scottish Office, 36 York Place, Edinburgh EH1 3HU
Meeting starts 5.45pm, refreshments available from 5.15pm.

Survival analysis (SA) can be used to model virtually everything that can be modelled using logistic regression and a whole lot more besides. The results are a dynamic scoring technology that can incorporate not just application characteristics but also behavioural characteristics and changing states of the macroeconomy. The aim of this presentation is to demonstrate the benefits of using SA to model the credit risk of borrowers. The benefits of and the intuitive ideas behind SA will be explained and illustrated. The predictive accuracy of SA to model the timing of default, and application of SA to behavioural scoring, early repayment prediction and profit scoring will be illustrated. Finally the speaker will show how states of the economy can be included in default models.

While this meeting is targeted at those in the early stages of their career obviously all are welcome to come and share their experiences during this valuable networking opportunity. So come along, have a glass of wine and meet statisticians from across the sectors!

*Career Young Statisticians are defined by the RSS as those in the first 10 years of their career and/or under 40.


This page is maintained by Adam Butler.