Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
Rabbits have recently been identified as a key wildlife species in terms of paratuberculosis (Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis), a widespread infection which is difficult to control in livestock populations and which has possible links to Crohn’s disease in humans. A spatially explicit stochastic simulation model, built in collaboration with SAC and parameterised from empirical studies, shows that unrealistically high rabbit culls (>95% population reduction) are needed to achieve a high probability of eradication of the disease from a local rabbit populations with a single, one-off, cull. However, the model also quantifies the extent to which lower, more realistic, annual cull rates can lead to eradication if repeated over many years.
Estimated probabilities of eradication of
paratuberculosis from a rabbit population
as a function of time after commencement
of repeated annual culls of 40%, 45% and
50% of animals present.
Further details from: Ross Davidson
Article date 2009
