Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
We have developed Bayesian methodology for the estimation of transmission parameters for a stochastic model of epidemics in heterogeneous host populations, in collaboration with partners at Heriot-Watt and Cambridge Universities. Application to successive spatial maps of epidemics from replicated microcosms of mixed populations of radish (favourable hosts, F) and mustard (unfavourable hosts, U) seedlings exposed to the fungal plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani showed the best fitting model has primary and secondary infection rates that depend fully on the recipient and recipientdonor host combination respectively.
Estimated posterior
means (solid curves)
and 95% credible
intervals (dashed
curves) for timespecific
primary
infection rates of
favourable α[F](t) and
unfavourable α[U](t)
hosts, and each of
the four secondary
transmission rates,
e.g. β[FU](t) for
transmission from the
favourable to the
unfavourable host.
Further details from: Glenn Marion
