EXTREME VALUE THEORY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL FLOOD RISK
Adam Butler, Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
Talk to the RSS Highland local group, October 2005

ABSTRACT

A number of scientific studies have suggested that climate change may be altering 
the frequency and magnitude of storms in the North Atlantic. Severe floods along 
the coastlines of the North Sea are typically associated with storm surges, so that 
any change in storm behaviour could be expected to have an impact upon coastal flood risk.

We have used novel statistical models from the area of extreme value theory to analyse 
trends in storm surge levels over the past fifty years, and in this talk we give a broad 
overview of both the statistical methods and the oceanographic findings. We will assume 
no prior knowledge of extreme value theory, and will attempt throughout to demonstrate 
the wider applicability of extreme value methods within the environmental sciences.