ABSTRACT

A number of scientific studies have suggested that climate change may be altering the frequency and magnitude of storms in the North Atlantic. Severe floods along the coastlines of the North Sea are typically associated with storm surges, so that any change in storm behaviour could be expected to have an impact upon coastal flood risk.

We have used novel statistical models from the area of extreme value theory to analyse trends in storm surge levels over the past fifty years, and in this talk we give a broad overview of both the statistical methods and the oceanographic findings. We will assume no prior knowledge of extreme value theory, and will attempt throughout to demonstrate the wider applicability of extreme value methods within the environmental sciences.