To appear:

Category: "Refereed journal"

Burthe, S., Daunt, F., Butler, A., Elston, D.A., Frederiksen, M., Johns, D., Newell, M., Thackeray, S. and Wanless, S. Phenological trends and trophic mismatch across multiple levels of a North Sea pelagic food web. Marine Ecology Progress Series.

Catterall, S., Cook, A., Marion, G., Butler, A. and Hulme, P. Accounting for uncertainty in colonisation times: a novel approach to modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of alien invasions using distribution data. Ecography.

Published:

Category: "Refereed journal"

Burthe, S., Thackeray, S., Butler, A., Wanless, S., Hall, S. and Searle, K. (2011). Increased winter births in a large UK mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate warming. Journal of Animal Ecology 80(6), 1134-1144.

Lewis, F.I., Butler, A. and Gilbert, L. (2011). A unified approach to model selection using the likelihood ratio test: an application to tick questing abundance. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2(2), 155-162.

Bierman, S., Butler, A., Marion, G. and Kühn, I. (2010). Bayesian image restoration models for combining expert knowledge on recording activity with species distribution data. Ecography 33, 451-460.

Butler, A., Doherty, R. and Marion, G. (2009). Model averaging to combine simulations of future global vegetation carbon stocks. Environmetrics 20(7), 791-811.

Kohn, D., Hulme, P., Hollingsworth, P.M. and Butler, A. (2009). Are native bluebells(Hyacinthoides non-scripta) at risk from alien congenerics? Evidence from distributions and co-occurrence in Scotland. Biological Conservation 142(1), 61-74.

Butler, A. and Glasbey, C.A. (2008). A latent Gaussian model for compositional data with zeros (with publisher's corrigendum). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C - Applied Statistics 57(5), 505-520.

Parsons, M., Mitchell, I., Butler, A., Ratcliffe, N., Frederiksen, M. and Foster, S. (2008). Seabirds as marine environmental indicators. ICES Journal of Marine Science 65, 1520-1526.

Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Tawn, J.A. and Flather, R.A. (2007). Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C - Applied Statistics 56(4), 395-414.

Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Tawn, J.A., Flather, R.A. and Horsburgh, K.J. (2007). Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. Journal of Marine Systems 67, 189-200.

Cook, A., Marion, G., Butler, A. and Gibson, G. (2007). Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 69(6), 2005-2025.

Butler, A., Roy, D. and Rothery, P. (2003). Minitab Macros for Resampling Methods. Teaching Statistics 25, 22-25.

Category: "Book Chapter"

Marion, G., Butler, A., Catterall, S., Cook, A., Doherty, R., Kühn, I., Reineking, B., Schweiger, O. and Hulme, P. (2010). Statistical aspects of biodiversity risk assessment. In "Atlas of Biodiversity Risk", 58-61. Eds. Josef Settele et al.. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Marion, G., Grabaum, R., Bierman, S., Butler, A., Grescho, V., Spangenberg, J., Kühn, I., Hammen, V., Hickler, T., Hulme, P., Douguet, J.M., Peterson, K., Potts, S., Reginster, I., Maxim, L., Omann, I. and Settele, J. (2010). Biodiversity risk assessment for Europe - putting it all together. In "Atlas of Biodiversity Risk", 252-253. Eds. Josef Settele et al. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Nagy, L., Dendoncker, N., Butler, A., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. and Pauli, H. (2010). Where have all the flowers gone? From natural vegetation to land use - land cover types: past changes and future forecasts. In "Atlas of Biodiversity Risk", 110-111. Eds. Josef Settele et al.. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Butler, A. and Dendoncker, N. (2010). Land use change scenarios for ALARM. In "Atlas of Biodiversity Risk", 100-105. Eds. Josef Settele et al.. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.