Document details for 'Potential impacts of climate change on the threat of potato cyst nematode species in Great Britain'

Authors Skelsey, P., Kettle, H., Blok, V. and MacKenzie, K.
Publication details Plant Pathology 67(4), 909-919. Wiley.
Publisher details Wiley
Keywords Globodera rostochiensis, Globoera pallida, climate change, temperature
Abstract Different PCN species have different temperature optima for various life cycle stages, therefore a risk assessment of the threat of PCN species under future climates is essential to guide adaptation strategies. In this study, data defining the spatial coverage of potato crops in Scotland were combined with spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future risk to potato crops from two PCN species: Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis. A newly developed empirical model for female survival in G. pallida and G. rostochiensis was used to project the risk of PCN in over 36,000 crop locations. We found that projected increases in soil temperature will result in increased emergence and survival of mature females of G. pallida, although temperatures in western crop locations are expected to surpass the optimum value for survival to maturity under a high emissions scenario in the 2080s. In comparison, the projected risk from G. rostochiensis was much greater and increased in all geographic areas under all emissions scenarios. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of improved pest management and climate-change driven shifts in the cropping season on PCN risk. We found that soil infestation levels would have to be reduced by approximately 30 and 70% for G. pallida and G. rostochiensis, respectively, in order to negate projected increases in PCN risk. The magnitude of risk reduction achieved by advancing the start date of the growing season by one month was considerable under all climate change scenarios.
Last updated 2018-11-02
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