Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
Document details for 'Use of host population reduction to control wildlife disease in a pest species: rabbits and paratuberculosis'
| Authors | Davidson, R.S., Marion, G., White, P.C.L. and Hutchings, M.R. |
|---|---|
| Publication details | Epidemiology and Infection 137, 131-138. |
| Keywords | stochastic model; wildlife disease; control strategies; |
| Abstract | Paratuberculosis (Map) is a widespread and difficult disease to control in livestock populations and also has possible links to Crohn's disease in humans. Rabbits have recently been identified as the key wildlife species in terms of paratuberculosis transmission to the wider host community and infection will persist in rabbit populations for extended periods of time in the absence of external sources of infection (e.g. from cattle). As such it is recommended that disease control strategies include rabbits. Here we use a spatially-explicit stochastic simulation model of Map dynamics in rabbit populations to quantify the effects of rabbit population control on disease persistence. The model was parameterised based on empirical studies on rabbit population dynamics and on rabbit to rabbit routes of Map transmission. Three rabbit control strategies were compared, single one-off population reductions based on removal of entire social groups, single one-off population reductions based on removing individual animals and repeated annual population reductions based on removing individual animals. Unrealistically high rabbit culls (>95% population reduction) are needed if infection is to be eradicated from local rabbit populations with a single one-off population reduction event. Repeated annual control events are more effective at reducing the prevalence of infection in rabbit populations and eradicating infection. However, annual population reductions of greater than 50% are required over extended periods of time (many years). Following a reduction in rabbit numbers the population recovers before the disease prevalence suggesting the theoretical possibility of an optimal culling strategy that removes infection from a rabbit population whilst the population itself is maintained. The results are discussed in relation to practical disease control measures. |
| Date entered | 2007-05-22 |
| Last updated | 2009-01-29 |
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