Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
When designing new intervention studies, it is essential to quantify the likely cost-benefit from different strategies, allowing the scientists and farmers involved to judge whether the study is likely to provide scientific and practical results commensurate with the costs involved. For a proposed study by scientists at the Moredun Research Institute into the efficacy of different control methods for Ovine Pulmonary Adenocarcinoma (OPA) in sheep, we were able to draw on a previous research project which used quantitative risk assessment methods to assess the efficacy of different control methods. Our model of OPA infection dynamics describes the spread of infection from mother to lamb, from sheep to sheep and from the local environment to sheep, with parameters estimated from an extensive literature review and the analysis of new experimental data. A simplified version of this model was used to simulate the likely results of various control and testing strategies, thereby optimising the use of valuable scientific resources and facilitating the provision of informed consent from the farmer involved.
Further details from: Iain McKendrick & Stephen Catterall
Article date 2009
