Outputs

Published journal articles

[Abstract] Butler, A., Doherty, R. M. and Marion, G. (2009) Model averaging to combine simulations of future global vegetation carbon stocks. To appear in Environmetrics, published online 13 October 2008.

[Abstract] Kohn, D., Hulme, P.E., Hollingsworth, P.M. and Butler, A. (2009) Are native bluebells (Hyacinthoides non-scripta) at risk from alien congenerics? Evidence from distributions and co-occurence in Scotland. Biological Conservation, 142(1), 61-74.

[Abstract] Cook, A., Marion, G., Butler, A. and Gibson, G. (2007) Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 69(6), 2005-2025.

[Abstract] Kühn I, Bierman S. M., Durka W., and Klotz S. (2006) Relating geographical variation in pollination types to environmental and spatial factors using novel statistical methods. New Phytologist, 172 (1), 127-139.

[Abstract] Settele J., Hammen V.C., Hulme P.E., Karlson U., Klotz S., Kotarac M., Kunin W.E., Marion, G., O'Connor M., Petanidou T., Peterson K., Potts S.G., Pritchard H., Pysek P., Rounsevell M., Spangenberg J., Steffan-Dewenter I., Sykes MT., Vighi M., Zobel M., and Kühn I. (2005) ALARM: Assessing LArge scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods. GAIA - Ecological Perspectives in Science, Humanities, and Economics, 14 (1), 69-72.

Submitted journal articles

Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Marion, G. and Kühn, I. (submitted) Bayesian image restoration models for combining expert knowledge on recording activity with species distribution data. Submitted to Ecography.

Küster, E. C., Bierman, S. M., Klotz, S. and Kühn, I. (submitted) Modelling the impact of climate and land use change on the geographical distribution of leaf anatomy in a temperate flora. Submitted to Ecography.

Hulme, P., Ball, B.C., Copp, GH., Freckleton, R., Gould, E., Hails, RS., Hartley, M., Harwood, J., Marion, G., Smith, G. and Williamson, M. (submitted) The epidemiology of biological invasions: building a common framework for the assessment of biosecurity threats. Submitted to Journal of Applied Ecology.

Book chapters

Marion, G., Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Catterall S., Cook A., Doherty R., Kühn I., Reineking B. and Hulme P. (to appear) Statistical aspects of biodiversity risk assessment. In: Atlas of Biodiversity Risk, Eds. Josef Settele et al. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Marion, G., Grabaum R., Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Grescho V., Spangenberg J., Kühn I., Hammen V., Hickler T., Hulme P., Douguet J.M., Peterson K., Potts S., Reginster I., Maxim L., Omann I. and Settele J. (to appear) Biodiversity risk assessment for Europe - putting it all together. In Atlas of Biodiversity Risk, Eds. Josef Settele et al. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Butler, A. and Dendoncker, N. (to appear) Land use change scenarios for ALARM. In: Atlas of Biodiversity Risk, Eds. Josef Settele et al. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Nagy L., Dendoncker N., Butler A., Reginster I., Rounsevell M., Grabherr G., Gottfried M. & Pauli H. (to appear) Where have all the flowers gone? From natural vegetation to land use - land cover types: past changes and future forecasts. In: Atlas of Biodiversity Risk, Eds. Josef Settele et al. Pensoft, Sofia & Moscow.

Events

Probabilistic future climate and climate impacts prediction workshop
Edinburgh, 25-26 September 2006. Organised by Ruth Doherty (Edinburgh University), Butler, A. and Marion, G. (BioSS).

Training materials

Online course on quantitative methods for biodiversity risk assessment

Presentations at academic conferences

[Abstract (Word)] Marion, G., Catterall, S., Butler, A., Bierman, S.M., Cook, A. (2008) Spatio-temporal models for the spread of invasive alien plants: Bayesian inference and risk assessment. EURECO-GFOE conference, Leipzig (Germany).

Bierman, S.M., Butler, A., Marion, G. and Kühn, I. (2008) A statistical framework for combining species atlas data with data on recording effort. EURECO-GFOE conference, Leizpig (Germany).

[Slides (PDF) ... Abstract (Word)] Marion, G., Grabaum R., Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Spangenberg J., Kühn I., Settele J., Hulme P., Douguet J.M., Peterson K., Reginster I., Grescho V., Maxim L. & Omann I. (2008) Linking expert scientific knowledge to policy: a qualitative assessment of future risks to European biodiversity. EURECO-GFOE conference, Leipzig (Germany).

Marion, G., Hammen, V., Grabaum, R., Hulme. P., Gosewinkel, U., Kotarac, M., Kühn, I., O'Connor, M., Potts, S., Spangenberg, J., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Sykes, M., Zobel, M., Settele, J. (2008) Development of a European Environmental Risk Assessment Toolkit (RAT) for biodiversity and ecosystems. Convention on Biological Diversity 9th meeting (COP 9) associated scientific conference: Biodiversity Research – Safeguarding the Future, 12-16 May 2008, Bonn (Germany).

Marion, G., Grabaum R., Hulme P., Kotarac M., Settele J., Kühn I., Hammen V., O'Connor M. & Zobel M. (2007) Developing a European risk assessment toolkit for biodiversity. In: Thematic session on Risk Assessment for Biodiversity at British Ecological Society 2007 Annual Meeting, Glasgow (Scotland).

Marion, G., Grabaum R., Hammen V., Hulme P., Karlson U., Kotarac M., Kühn I., O'Connor M., Potts S., Spangenberg J., Steffan-Dewenter I., Sykes M., Zobel M. & Settele J. (2007) Development of a European Environmental Risk Assessment Toolkit (RAT) for biodiversity and ecosystems. Risk Assessment in European River Basins - State of the Art and Future Challenges; a conference sponsored by RiskBase & Modelkey, Leipzig (Germany).

Presentations to the policy community

Marion G., Grabaum, R., Hammen, V., Hulme, P., Karlson, U., Kotarac, M., Kühn, I., O’Connor. M., Potts, S., Spangenberg. J., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Sykes, M., Zobel, M. & Settele, J. (2008) Methods for Assessing Biodiversity Risks - Tools and Results from the ALARM project. Poster presentation. IUCN World Conservation Congress, 5th-14th October 2008, Barcelona.

Settele J., Biesmeijer K., Grabaum R., Hammen V., Hulme P., Karlson U., Klotz S., Kotarac M., Kunin W., Marion, G., O'Connor M., Petanidou T., Peterson K., Potts S., Pysek P., Rattei R. & Rounsevell M. (2007) Environmental risk assessment for biodiversity and ecosystems: results and perspectives of the large scale inter- and transdisciplinary research of the ALARM project. In: Emerging Issues for Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate: Abstracts of Poster Presentations at the 12th Meeting of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 50 - 53. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. ISBN 92-9225-07.

Settele J., Biesmeijer K., Grabaum R., Hammen V., Hulme P., Karlson U., Klotz S., Kotarac M., Kunin W., Marion, G., O'Connor M., Petanidou T., Peterson K., Potts S., Pysek P., Rattei R., Rounsevell M., Schmidt A., Spangenberg J., Steffan-Dewenter I., Sykes M., Vighi M., Walther G.R., Zobel M. & Kühn I. (2007) Environmental Risk Assessment for Biodiversity and Ecosystems: Results and Perspectives of the Large Scale Inter- and Transdisciplinary Research of the ALARM Project. In: L2L conference: Sustainable Neighbourhood - from Lisbon to Leipzig through Research, Leipzig (Germany).

Marion, G., Grabaum R., Hammen V., Hulme P., Karlson U., Klotz S., Kotarac M., Kühn I., O'Connor M., Potts S., Spangenberg J., Steffan-Dewenter I., Sykes M., Zobel M. & Settele J. (2007) Development of a European Environmental Risk Assessment Toolkit (RAT) for biodiversity and ecosystems. L2L conference: Sustainable Neighbourhood - from Lisbon to Leipzig through Research, Leipzig (Germany).

Marion, G. (2007) Developing a policy relevant European risk assessment toolkit for biodiversity. Meeting with policy representatives from DG environment, DG research, and IUCN, CDMA building, Brussels.

Marion, G. (2007) Developing a policy relevant European risk assessment toolkit for biodiversity. Meeting with policy representatives, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.

[Slides (powerpoint)] Butler, A., Roberts, A.M.I., Marion, G., Glasbey C.A. & Elston D.A. (2007) Statistical tools for climate impact assessment. ECRR/SNIFFER climate impacts seminar, Pollock Halls, Edinburgh.

Presentations at academic workshops and seminars

2008

[Slides (PDF)] Collins. L., Butler, A., Anderson I.C., Doherty R. & Marion, G. (2008) Quantifying climate uncertainty in dynamic vegetation models. PISCES-2 workshop, Bristol University.

[Slides (PDF)] Butler, A., Bierman, S. M., Marion, G. & Cook A. (2008) Statistical challenges in ecological risk assessment. RSS Lancashire and East Cumbria local group, Lancaster University.

[Slides (PDF)] Butler, A., Bierman, S. M., Marion, G., Cook A. & Doherty R. (2008) ALARM: a statistical perspective. Seminar, CEH Bush, Midlothian.

Bierman, S. M., Glasbey C. A., Butler, A., Marion, G., Kühn I. & Biesmeijer K. (2008) The analysis of data from two contrasting types of large-scale ecological surveys. Joint University of Aberdeen/Highland RSS Meeting, Zoology Lecture Theatre, Aberdeen University.

2007

[Slides (powerpoint)] Butler, A., Marion, G., Bierman S. & Cook A. (2007) A statistical perspective on biodiversity risk assessment at the European level. Second annual workshop of the National Centre for Statistical Ecology, University of Kent.

[Slides (PDF)] Butler, A., Marion, G., Bierman, S. M., Kühn I., Kuester E. & Cook A. (2007) Statistical analysis of species-level data on distribution and traits. Seminar, Tartu University.

[Slides (powerpoint)] Butler A.(2007) Exploratory methods to analyse output from complex environmental models. Smoothing-based and Gaussian-process-based methods for nonparametric regression in environmental problems, ICMS, Edinburgh (Scotland).

[Poster (PDF)] Butler, A., Marion, G. and Bierman, S. M. (2007) Assessing risks to biodiversity for European ecosystems. Biodiversity Forum Meeting, Edinburgh Botanical Gardens.

[Slides (powerpoint)] Butler A. (2007) Searching for applications of EVT in biology. UK Extremes, Sheffield.

2006

Marion, G., Cook A., Butler, A. and Gibson G. (2006) Spatio-temporal modelling of species distributions. Workshop on modelling species abundances, Macaulay Institute, Aberdeen.

Bierman, S. M., Kühn, I., Durka, W., Klotz, S. & Lambin, X. (2006) The uses of Bayesian image restoration techniques in the analysis of species atlas survey data with spatially varying non-detection probabilities. Edinburgh School of Mathematics Statistics Seminar Series, University of Edinburgh, James Clerk Maxwell Building, 2006.

Bierman, S. M., Kühn, I., Lambin, X. & Klotz, S. (2006) Bayesian image restoration techniques to analyse species atlas survey data. 6th French-Danish workshop, Skagen, 2006.

[Slides (powerpoint)] Doherty, R., Butler, A., Marion, G. & Rougier, J. (2006) Impact of climate uncertainty upon trends in outputs generated by an ecosystem model. Workshop on probabilistic future climate and climate impact prediction, University of Edinburgh, 2006.

2005

Marion, G. (2005) Mathematical and Statistical methods for assessing risks to biodiversity using large-scale data. Global change seminar, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh.

Marion, G., Bierman S. M. and Butler, A. (2005) Large-scale risk assessment. ALARM Workshop on exposure and effect indicators for risk assessment, Krakow.

Marion, G. (2005) Environmental risk assessment and the ALARM project.
Tripartite BioSS/Biometris/INRA-MIA Risk Meeting, Edinburgh, 2005.

Bierman, S. M., Sims, M. & Roberts, A.M.I. (2005) Recently developed statistical tools to investigate the relationship between the climate and species performance. Biodiversity Forum Meeting, Edinburgh Botanical Gardens.

[Poster (postscript)] Butler, A., Bierman, S. & Marion, G. (2005) The ALARM project: ecological risk assessment at the pan-European scale. Bayesian Methods for Population Ecology Workshop, University of Cambridge.

Bierman, S. M. (2005) Incorporating probabilities of non-detection in species presence/absence models. CREEM seminar series, University of St. Andrews, 2005.

Bierman, S. M.(2005) Bayesian methods for analysing species distribution data. ALARM Workshop on Analysing Spatial Ecological Data, Leipzig-Halle, 2005.

Cook, A. (2005) Return of the Giant Hogweed: modelling the invasion of Britain by a dangerous alien plant. Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences Seminar Series, Heriot-Watt University, 2005.

Presentations to the wider public

Marion, G. (2007) Mathematics in biology and biodiversity research. Science Week presentation, James Gillespies Primary School, Edinburgh.

Project deliverables

(these are techincal reports to the European Union by the ALARM consortium)

Marion, G., Butler, A., Bierman, S. M., Catterall S., Kühn I., Kuester E., Durka W., Klotz S., Spangenberg J., Dendoncker N., Reginster I., Rounsevell M., Kohn D., Hulme P., Biesmeijer K., Grabaum R., Reineking B., Roberts S., Potts S. & Douguet J.M. (2008) Deliverable 4.2.7.1: Review results of initial tests of statistical risk assessments of multiple pressures.

Marion, G., Kotarac, M., Grabaum, R., Kühn, I., Hammen, V. Spangenberg, J., Butler, A., Bierman, S. M., Settele, J. (2007) Deliverable 5.2.2: Document outlining draft framework for European Risk Assessment Toolkit (Incorporating D5.2.1 Report on the outcome of the workshop `How do we construct a European risk assessment toolkit?').

Marion, G. (2007) Deliverable 6.2: Report on training activities.

Marion, G., Hulme, P., Butler, A., Bierman, S. and Sol, D. (2006) Integration of pathways, habitat, and environmental data to generate compound invasion risk assessments.

Laskowski., R., Marion, G. and Vighi, M. (2005) Interim document showing integrated risk indicators application to large scale systems (using data and sites within ALARM, probabilistic uncertainty analyses, and specific conceptual models).

Marion, G., Kühn, I., Sykes, M., Hulme, P., Long, S., Pysek, P., Westphal, C., Lamborn, E., Spangenberg, J., Bierman, S. M., Butler, A., Grabaum, R., Badeck, F., Jonker, C., Potts, S., Moritz, R.F.A., Moora, M., and Penev, L. (200?) Deliverable 6.1: Report on training activities in the ALARM consortium. Technical report to European Union by ALARM consortium.

Technical reports

Bierman, S. M., Roberts, S., Potts, S., Biesmijer, K., Kühn, I., Butler, A. and Marion, G. (2009) Mapping and projecting Andrena species distributions in Europe from digitised maps.

Butler, A., Dendoncker N., Marion, G. & Rounsevell M. (2008) Downscaled projections of future European land use for the ECOCHANGE and ALARM projects: Version 1.4.

Butler, A., Bierman, S. & Marion, G. (2005) Quantifying habitat invasability using the BiolFlor and Florkart databases . ALARM technical report